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THE COLOSSAL ASCENT: PROJECTING INDIA'S RISE AS THE WORLD’S SECOND-LARGEST ECONOMY

By P Mohan Chandran


Can a nation of vivid colors, diverse cultures, and timeless traditions transform into a global economic powerhouse? Is it conceivable for the land of the Ganges, the Himalayas, and the Thar Desert to ascend the pedestal as the world's second-largest economy? What could be the threads in the fabric of such a massive economic metamorphosis? Let us journey through the projected growth of India, whose 1.4 billion people are all set to compose an economic symphony of unprecedented scale.


India, teeming with youthful vigor and ambitions, is on the cusp of a demographic dividend. A nation where the working-age populace outnumbers the dependent children and elderly, India's rising tide of human capital could play a pivotal role in its economic ascent. As Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs Research's India economist, articulates, the clock is ticking for India to capitalize on its demographic advantage, establish manufacturing capacities, and bolster infrastructure and services.


But the sheer numbers alone cannot orchestrate this colossal ascent. Innovation and technology are at the heart of India's growth melody. Emerging as the world's fifth-largest economy, India has shown signs of technological maturity beyond common perceptions. Greater productivity from each labor unit and capital forms a fundamental driver for this prospective economic expansion.


Capital investment also looms large in India's economic script. The lowering dependency ratios, rising incomes, and advancements in the financial sector are likely to swell India's savings rate, thereby fueling further investments. Indeed, the government has made some heavy strides, but now the stage is set for the private sector to gear up and join the act, marking a significant phase in India's economic growth narrative.


Demographics continue to lend a steady rhythm to India's economic ballad. India's population surge, if navigated wisely, can transform from a mere statistical highlight to an economic advantage. A rise in the labor force participation rate, particularly involving women, could hold the key to unlocking this potential. Further, effective training and upskilling can ensure this labor force contributes productively to the country's economic symphony.


Yet, like any grand projection, there are potential pitfalls that could disrupt this harmonious crescendo. Should the labor force participation rate fail to increase or if the immense task of upskilling falls short, the symphony could descend into discord.


On the brighter side, India's leap towards digitalization presents promising opportunities. The Aadhaar system, a biometric ID for its 1.4 billion citizens, coupled with the proliferation of the Internet, has set the stage for streamlined public service delivery, widened credit networks, and increased productivity. These factors could just provide the perfect pitch to amplify India's growth.


India's economy, largely driven by domestic demand, has always had a unique character. While exports have historically been a growth drag, recent strides in service exports have started to cushion this impact. Moreover, the country's response to global commodity price fluctuations and its approach to reducing macro imbalances will continue to play a crucial role in defining its economic melody.


As we reach the finale of this economic sonnet, it's time to ponder the potential green revolution. With ambitious targets for net-zero emissions and renewable energy, the transition to green energy presents a vast investment opportunity. This pivot towards a sustainable future might just be the final note in India's symphony of growth.


As we prepare to exit this auditorium of thoughts, a few questions echo in our minds. Will India successfully capitalize on its demographic dividend? Can the challenges of labor participation and upskilling be surmounted? Will the green energy revolution sing in harmony with economic growth? As the curtains fall, the answers to these questions remain unknown, leaving us in anticipation of the grand spectacle that awaits: India's rise as the world’s second-largest economy.


Do you think India can even become the "World's largest economy" by 2080?

  • Yes, India has every potential to be World's Largest Economy

  • No, India will take more time to become the largest economy.



© 2023. P Mohan Chandran. All Rights Reserved.

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